Course syllabus

Statistik med beslutsteori
Statistics with Decision Theory

TNX071, 9 credits, G1 (First Cycle)

Valid for: 2015/16
Decided by: Education Board B
Date of Decision: 2015-04-16

General Information

Compulsory for: BI2
Language of instruction: The course will be given in Swedish

Aim

The aim of the course is to give a basic knowledge of statistical concepts in technology, science and economics and to give training in the use of computers for statistical calculations and in the evaluation of the quality of statistical investigations.

The course will give the student knowledge in how to describe random variation and understanding of the principles behind statistical analysis. It will also give the student a tool-box with the most common models and methods and the ability to use these in different practical situations.

The aim is both to give a general knowledge in statistics and to give a foundation for further studies.

The general knowledge is required for those who in their professional activities perhaps will not need to perform statistical analyses regularly, but who will have to interpret results from various investigations, present results and perform simple statistical analyses.

The course will also give a foundation for further studies, foremost by defining and using the basic concepts within probability theory, risk-analysis, decision theory, statistical modelling etc.

Learning outcomes

Knowledge and understanding
For a passing grade the student must

• be able to relate questions on random variation and observed data, to both applied and theoretical concepts: variables/random variables, distributions and association between variables
• be able to explain the concepts: independence, probability, conditional probability, distribution, expected value, variance, covariance and correlation,
• be able to calculate the probability of an event and expected value and variance in a theoretical distribution,
• be able to explain a statistical decision model and concepts as decision, uncertainty and values,
• be able to describe basic techniques for statistical inference and be able to use them in simple statistical models.

Competences and skills
For a passing grade the student must

• be able to describe a dataset with the aid of different descriptive techniques,
• be able to choose and use an appropriate statistical method to answer a specific statistical question,
• be able to describe a problem with the help of a decision-tree and also be able to find the optimal decision,
• be able to use a statistical computer program for data analysis and simulations,
• be able to use statistical concepts in writing.

Judgement and approach
For a passing grade the student must

• be able to evaluate the presentation of a statistical study,
• be able to evaluate a statistical model and its description of reality.

Contents

The course presents the theoretical and practical foundations for statistical analysis of data. Concepts as event, probability (risk), independence and expected value are defined. Further, different discrete and continuous probability models are studied, e.g. binomial, poisson and normal models. The structure and basic concepts of decision analysis are studied, e. g. Bayes’ theorem, decision-trees and sensitivity analysis. The foundations of descriptive statistics: Principles of tabulation and graphs, measures of location, variation and association, standardization, and index-theory. The meaning of concepts as statistical precision and statistical significance are discussed. The course will also give an introduction to Monte Carlo simulation.

Examination details

Grading scale: TH
Assessment: Written examination and approved computer exercises.

Parts
Code: 0195. Name: Statistics with Decision Theory.
Credits: 9. Grading scale: TH.
Code: 0295. Name: Laboratory Work.
Credits: 0. Grading scale: UG.

Admission

Required prior knowledge: FMA415 Calculus in one Variable.
The number of participants is limited to: No

Reading list

• Körner S., Wahlgren L: Praktisk statistik, tredje upplagan. Studentlitteratur , 2002, ISBN: 91-44-01915-7.
• Körner, S., Wahlgren L: Statistisk Dataanalys, fjärde upplagan. Studentlitteratur , 2006, ISBN: 91-44-01573-9.
• The Centre for Chemical Process Safety: Tools for Making Aute Risk Decisions, Decision of Analysis, kapitel 11. American Institute of Chemical Engineers, New York, 1995.
• Körner, S.: Tabeller och formler för statistiska beräkningar, Andra upplagan. Studentlitteratur, 2000, ISBN: 91-44-01485-6.
• Körner S., Wahlgren L.: Praktisk statistik, 3rd ed. Studentlitteratur, 2002, ISBN: 91-44-01915-7.
• Körner, S., Wahlgren L.: Statistisk Dataanalys, 4th ed. Studentlitteratur, 2006, ISBN: 91-44-01573-9. Chapters 1–8, 10.
• The Centre for Chemical Process Safety: Tools for Making Acute Risk Decisions., Decision of Analysis. American Institute of Chemical Engineers, New York , 1995. Chapter 11.
• Körner, S.: Tabeller och formler för statistiska beräkningar , 2nd ed. Studentlitteratur , 2000, ISBN: 91-44-01485-6.
• Study material (Introductions to computer programs).

Contact and other information

Course coordinator: Per-Erik Isberg, per-erik.isberg@stat.lu.se
Course coordinator: Lars Wahlgren , lars.wahlgren@stat.lu.se
Course homepage: http://www.stat.lu.se/dk/tnx071.htm
Further information: For retake of examination, contact the course coordinator.