(Created 2009-08-11.)
 RISK ANALYSIS METHODS VBR180

Higher education credits: 15. Grading scale: TH. Level: A (Second level). Language of instruction: The course will be given in Swedish. Compulsory for: BI3, RH3rh. Optional for: Pi4, Pi4mrk. Course coordinator: Senior lecturer Håkan Frantzich, hakan.frantzich@brand.lth.se, Brandteknik och riskhantering. Prerequisites: FMA430 Calculus in Several Variables, TNX071 Statistics with Decision Theory or equivalent. Recommended prerequisits: FMA415 Mathematics, Calculus in One Variable, FMA420 Linear Algebra,. The number of participants is limited to 80 Selection criteria: Credits remaining for the degree. Assessment: The examination represents a combination of results of tests, a written examination and the project assignments undertaken. The examination consists of both questions on theory and questions of a problem-solving nature. Parts: 2. Home page: http://www.brand.lth.se/?id=VBR180.

Aim
The aim of the course is that, in combination with earlier courses, the students gain the capability of utilizing tools for decision-making in matters of risk management within the fields of Safety, Health, and Environment (SHE). Furthermore, the course is aimed at providing a foundation for continuing studies in the risk management field.

Knowledge and understanding
For a passing grade the student must

• be able to describe how uncertainty at various levels in risk analysis affects the magnitude of the risk.

• be able to identify risks within systems associated with safety, health, and environment.

• be able to describe risk analysis methods for systems associated with safety, health, and environment.

• be able to analyse such systems and be able to calculate the relevant risk measurement values.

• be able to explain complexities inherent in the risk concept.

Skills and abilities
For a passing grade the student must

• be able to utilize, in a new situation, the methods and tools used in risk analysis.

• be able to evaluate the contents of existing risk analyses.

• be able to assess the reasonableness of input data in cases where the knowledge base is uncertain.

• be able to report, both orally and in writing, and discuss the implications of an executed risk analysis in a way understandable to persons with different knowledge backgrounds.

• be able to utilise material in scientific publications that is relevant for risk analysis within the fields of safety, health, and environment.

• be able to apply, with a certain amount of independence, recently-acquired knowledge concerning risk analysis in a new situation.

Judgement and approach
For a passing grade the student must

• be able to assess the applicability of various risk analysis methods depending on the nature of the problem and within the framework of safety, health, and environment.

• be able to carry out analyses in a way that takes into consideration both scientific and ethical aspects.

Contents
The overriding elements in the course, "Risk Analysis Methods" consist of: Introduction to the field' with a review of the risk analysis field for SHE; Uncertainty Analysis, Risk Analysis Methodology within the field of Health; Risk Analysis Methodology within the field of Environment, including methods for transport mechanisms in soil and water; as well as Risk Analysis Methodology within the field of Safety, including methods for transport mechanisms in air.

During the course, a number of home assignments, as well as three major project assignments, are to be completed. These assignments are to be completed either individually or in a group. For the project assignments, tutors are available for consultation. The project assignments contain relevant problem issues within the three principal fields, Safety, Health, and Environment, that the students are required to deal with. The project assignments are to be reported in written form, and in one case, also orally.

Literature
Nilsson, J: Introduktion till riskanalysmetoder. LUCRAM, Lund 2000.
Kammen och Hassenzahl: Should we risk it? Princeton University Press, New Jersey, 1999. Kap 1 - 8.
Kolluru, R: Risk Assessment and Management Handbook. McGraw-Hill Inc. New York1996. Sid 1.3  1.41.
Handbok för riskanalys. Räddningsverket, Karlstad, 2003.
IEC - Dependability management. Application Guide - Risk analysis of technological systems. International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), Part 3, Sect 9 IEC600-3-9, 1995.
Morgan & Henrion: Uncertainty. Cambridge University Press 1990. Kap 4 och 8.
Paté-Cornell: Uncertainties in risk analysis  six levels of treatment. I Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54 1996. sid 95-111.
Abrahamsson, M: Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Analysis - Characterisation and Methods of Treatment. Report 1024, Brandteknik, LTH, Lund 2002. (sid 47-48)
Ang, A & Tang ,W H: Probability concepts in Engineering Planning and Design. Vol 1  Basic Principles 1975. Kap 8.
Nystedt, F: Riskanalysmetoder. Brandteknik, LTH 2000.
Kompendium i miljötoxikologi för miljötoxikologikurs på kemitekniklinjen. Avd för yrkes- och miljömedicin, Universitetssjukhuset i Lund. Version 1.12.2002. (sid 3-12, 21-40 och 123-127).
Riskbedömning och riskhantering inom kemikaliekontrollen - 11/95. Kemikalieinspektionen 1995.
McClellan & Miller: An overview of EPAs proposed revision of the particulate matter standard. CIIT Activities Vol 17, No 4., 1997.
Künzli, N m fl: Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a European assessment. The Lancet, Vol 356, pp 795-783, 2000.
Fetter, CW: Applied Hydrogeology, 4th ed. Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 2001.
Runkel och Bencala: Transport of reacting solutes in rivers and streams. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht , The Netherlands 1995. Chapter 5.
van Leeuwen, C J: and Hermens, J L M Risk Assessment of Chemicals  an introduction 1999. Sid 37  42, 78-84 (3.5.1-3.5.5), 118-120.
Suter II, G (Red): Ecological Risk Assessment. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton 1993. Kap 2, kap 3: sid 49-66, kap 4: sid 96-101, 124-127, kap 6: sid 153-169, kap 7: sid 185-193, kap8: sid 247-251.
Center for Chemical Process safety of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, CCPS Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis. American Institute of Chemical Engineers, New York 1989. Kap 4 och 8.1.
Lauridsen m fl: Assessing the uncertainties in the process of risk analysis of chemical establishments: Part I och Part II.
Fischer, S: Vådautsläpp av brandfarliga och giftiga gaser och vätskor Sid 1-10, 113-139, 161-196, 243-277. Försvarets forskningsanstalt, FOA 1997.
Riskhantering 3. Tekniska riskanalysmetoder. Kemikontoret, Stockholm 2001.
Fördjupning av felträd Kursmaterial Felträdsanalys. Utdrag ur Riskanalysmetoder, Hans T Karlsson, 1997 och CPQRA kap 3.
Farligt gods, riskbedömning vid transport. SRV Handbok. B20-194/96, Karlstad, 1996.
Geotekniska undersökningar:
SPIMFAB: Skjutstallslyckan 24, Malmö  rapport avseende miljötekniska markundersökningar.
BT Kemi, Teckomatorp. Kompletterande miljöteknisk markundersökning vid fd BT-Kemiområdet, Teckomatorp, Svalövs kommun på uppdrag av Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län. SCC Skandiaconsult, Malmö 2000-11-28.
Kaplan S. The words of risk analysis. Risk Analysis, Vol 17, No 4, 1997.
Kaplan S & Garrick B., J. On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis, Vol 1, No 1, 1981.
Apostolakis G. How useful is Quantitative risk assessment? Risk Analysis, Vol 24, No 3, 2004.
Evans A, Verlander N. What is wrong with criterion FN-lines for judging the tolerability of risk. Risk Analysis Vol 17, No 2, 1997

Parts

Code: 0108. Name: Risk Analysis Methods.
Higher education credits: 7,5. Grading scale: TH. Assessment: Writen examination. Contents: The central elements in the course, "Risk Analysis Methods" consist of: Introduction to the field' with a review of the risk analysis field for SHE; Uncertainty Analysis, Risk Analysis Methodology within the field of Health; Risk Analysis Methodology within the field of Environment, including methods for transport mechanisms in soil and water; as well as Risk Analysis Methodology within the field of Safety, including methods for transport mechanisms in air.

Code: 0208. Name: Project Assignments.
Higher education credits: 7,5. Grading scale: UG. Assessment: Successfully completed home assignments and project assignments. Contents: During the course, a number of home assignments, as well as three major project assignments, are to be completed. These assignments are to be completed either individually or in a group. For the project assignments, tutors are available for consultation. The project assignments contain relevant problem issues within the three principal fields, Safety, Health, and Environment, that the students are required to deal with. The project assignments are to be reported in written form, and in one case, also orally.